So we have Wolf pups on Isle Royale and virtually a full Lake Superior ice bridge connecting Royale and Ontario...Will Wolves cross into Isle Royale or will some leave the Island for Ontario?...........Even with pups on the ground on the island, is inbreeding going to sink their population into oblivion?..........We have heavyweight biologists weighing in on both sides of the question as to whether for us humans to physically add wolves to the island,,,,,,,,,,,,David Mech saids no to intervention feeling that somehow the Wolves will rally on their own despite the high odds of inbreeding ................John Vucetich and Rolf Peterson, the resident island Wolf researchers are in favor of inserting new Wolves into the population feeling that we have upset the Wolf/Moose dynamic due to Climate change.....................What will the National Park Service decide to do?

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Bitter winter, pup survival alter Isle Royale wolf debate Josephine Marcotty, Star Tribune It���s only February, and already it���s been  an extraordinary  winter for the wolves of Isle Royale.At least two new  healthy pups,  and perhaps three, have survived their first perilous months of life  ��� proof that the famous wolves, which number  less than a  dozen, may not be dwindling after all. And twice this winter, the bitter cold that has halted  shipping across  Lake Superior has also created temporary ice  bridges across the  20-mile channel between Isle Royale and the  Minnesota-Ontario  mainland, raising the tantalizing possibility that  once again wolves  could either leave the island or arrive on their  own four feet. Both developments are likely to only confound  a precedent-setting  decision that faces the National Park Service:  whether to intervene  in nature���s course and bring new wolves  onto the island in an  effort to preserve them and the critical balance  between the predators  and their primary prey, moose. Conservationists  say the decision  could establish new policy on managing critical  species in national  parks everywhere and even change the definition  of wilderness as  a place where only nature is allowed to rule. The wolves, which once numbered as many as 50,  are at their lowest  ebb since researchers first began tracking them  in the 1950s and are  closely followed by naturalists all over the world.  Scientists running  the Isle Royale wolf study today, from Michigan  Technological University  say they fear that even with the new pups, they  could die out, largely as  a result of inbreeding. At best, the new pups ���might extend the  amount of time the  population can bump along,��� said Rolf  Peterson, who has been  studying the wolves and moose along with  John Vucetich for years. In a series of e-mails sent from the island this  week, Peterson said  that even now the number of wolv!es is to   small to keep the moose  population in check and the forest ecosystem  in balance. Since 2006,  moose numbers have more than doubled to  nearly 1,000. That���s  far less than their peak of nearly 2,500 more  than 30 years ago, but  the rate of growth is dramatic. The huge  mammals depend on  balsam firs, one of the primary species of  trees  on the island, as  a major part of their diet. If they eat too  many, then other trees  would take over and, in the long run, neither  wolves or moose  would survive. But other wolf experts disagree, including  David Mech, a wolf expert  with the U.S. Geological Survey in Minnesota.  Mech said that the  wolves��� population is perilously low,  but that it has bounced  back before, and that the pups are evidence  that it can again.  Many of the wolves, he said, are only now at  the best age for  breeding, and this year could see even more  and larger litters,  he said. Those wolves are not nonreproductive, ��� he said . ���In another year or two they could  produce some more.��� In the meantime, scientists say they provide valuable information  on reproduction, genetics and ecology. This  week, the prestigious  journal Nature weighed in with an editorial. ���A declining island wolf population  underlines the influence  that humans have on nature,��� it read.  It points out that the  whole system is ���highly artificial.���  Wolves and moose  have been on the island less than 100 years,  and in the 1980s  the wolf population was nearly wiped out by  canine parvovirus,  an infection likely brought to the island by  someone���s pet.  (Dogs are no longer allowed.) Meanwhile, climate change ��� also caused  by humans ���  is greatly reducing the chances for the ice bridges  that brought wolves  to the island in the first place, it said. Once a near seasonal event, the bridges have  become increasi!ngly  rare. The last one formed in 2008, when two wolves  collared with  tracking devices disappeared, perhaps to the  mainland. The last  bridge before that was in 1997, when a wolf  named ���Old Gray  Guy��� appeared on the island and went  on to sire dozens of  puppies, providing an infusion of new genes  that researchers credit  with saving the population from demise. This year satellite images show that two  bridges have formed and  then been broken again by wind, the latest  in early February, said  Peterson. Meanwhile, as humans fret about the wolves ��� survival and  the meaning of wilderness, Isabelle waits.  She is, literally, a lone  wolf on Isle Royale and a prime candidate to  mate with a new arrival,  should one come, or take off across an ice  bridge, researchers said. Isabelle was born in 2008 to one of the two  packs on the island, but,  as wolves often do, left the pack in 2012  to find a mate. The  pickings are few ��� and all the males  are related to her.  That inhibits mating in wolves as well as  people, Peterson said. In addition, lone wolves are vulnerable to  attacks from breeding  packs in the relentless competition for the  right to reproduce.  Because she wears a tracking collar, the  researchers have been  able to follow her lonely and persecuted life.  Last year they saw  three other wolves chase her to the edge  of the water and attack  her with all the ferocity they use to bring  down a 900-pound  moose. They left her wounded and bleeding  on the edge of the  ice. When the researchers left last winter,  they weren���t  sure if they would see her again. ���But she has survived,��� Vucetich  announced on  the research study���s blog in late  January. ���It would  not be surprising if she���s learned to kill moose by herself.  A wolf that can do so is better than most.��� Isabelle is now 5, a prime age t!o mate. About  one in 10 wolves will  strike off on their own and try to start new packs,  and some will  travel for hundreds of miles in their search. On  Isle Royale, however , the wolves are trapped ��� unless there is  an ice bridge. No one knows what���s in the heart of a wolf,  but Peterson said  he thinks it���s quite possible, that given the  chance, Isabelle  will head out. Mech said that as long as there  are potential mates  on the island, she���s more likely to stay put. The chances that a wolf would come from the  mainland are also  very small, researchers said. It���s known  to have happened  only three times in the island���s history.  And today mainland  wolves face a treacherous path across roads,  yards and urban  areas ��� never mind 20 miles of shifting ice. Still, the survival of the three pups and the  renewed possibility of  ice bridges may have bought the National  Park Service some time.  Phyllis Green, park superintendent, is  weighing three options:  doing nothing, reintroducing wolves if their  numbers hit zero or  a ���genetic rescue��� by bringing a few new wolves to  mate with those that are in residence. Peterson and Vucetich said they favor  genetic rescue. And  Isabelle, if she had a vote, would likely agree. Josephine Marcotty ��� 612-673-7394